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As far as Florida is concerned, the weather in the tropics is currently fairly calm. But a tropical wave currently dumping torrential rain the central and parts of the northern Caribbean have an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression later this week, forecasters said.



The wave is approaching the same area that spawned Hurricanes Rafael, Milton and Helene, but an approaching front and increasing wind shear could prevent this from becoming a problem.


However, that zone is still capable of producing more tropical cyclones AccuWeather forecasts that the wind shear north of the Caribbean, which has prevented new storms from moving north since Milton, could clear next week and leave us open to more activity.


Meanwhile, the remnants of Rafael could meander around the Gulf of Mexico and get swept up in a cold front moving across the U.S. Wednesday and Thursday, bringing heavy rains to Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Tenneessee and the tip of the Florida Panhandle. The northern Gulf Coast, including Florida, can expect high surf and dangerous currents.



“The new cool front will also be more progressive than the front that dropped 8 inches of rain on Saturday and the storm that dumped a foot of rain on South Carolina and Georgia last week. While downpours can cause minor flooding, continuous rain showers do not. expected and widespread flooding is not expected,” AccuWeather meteorologist Grady Gilman said.


Weather warnings via SMS: Sign up to receive updates on current storms and weather conditions by location



Next named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season would be Sarah.


Here’s the latest update from the NHC as of 7 a.m. EST on Tuesday, November 12:


National Hurricane Center Map: What Else Is and How Likely are They to Strengthen?


Systems currently monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:


Central and Western Caribbean Sea: A tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea produces an area of ​​disorganized rain and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive to development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week as the system slowly moves westward into the western Caribbean Sea.



The disturbance is then expected to meander across the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend and begin moving slowly, generally northwestward, early next week. Interests in the western Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system.




  • Probability of formation during 48 hours: average, 40 percent.

  • Probability of formation during seven days: high, 80 percent.


What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?


The shaded areas on a tropical scout map “indicate areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said Jamie Rhome, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center.


The colors make it visibly clear how likely it is that a system can develop where yellow is low, orange is middle and red is high.


The National Hurricane Center generally does not issue tropical advisories until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.



“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center will not wait before issuing an advisory, even if the system has not become a full-blown storm. This gives residents time to prepare Rhome said.


Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida


When does the hurricane season end?


The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.


The Atlantic Basin includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.


Interactive map: hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city


Excessive rainfall forecast


Stay informed. Receive weather alerts via SMS


What’s next?


We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download the app from your local site to ensure you’re always up to date with the news. And find our special subscription offers here.



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